- Errata in Monte Carlo methods in finance (John Wiley and Sons, February 2002).
These are already corrected in the latest print batch.
- The handling of continuous barriers for derivatives on many underlyings.
(Presentation at the Quantitative Finance Conference in London, November 2002).
- Mind the Cap.
(Wilmott, pages 54-68, September 2003).
- The link between caplet and swaption volatilities in a
Brace-Gatarek-Musiela/Jamshidian framework: approximate solutions and
empirical evidence.
(The Journal of Computational Finance, 6(4), 2003, pages 41-59, submitted in 2000).
- The Future is Convex.
(Wilmott, pages 2-13, February 2005).
- Stochastic volatility models - past, present, and future.
(Presentation at the "Quantitative Finance Review" conference in November 2003 in London).
- Valuing American options in the presence of user-defined smiles and time-dependent volatility: scenario analysis, model stress and lower-bound pricing applications.
(The Journal of Risk, 4(1), pages 35-61,2001).
- Splitting the core.
Ever wondered how to (approximately) decompose the correlation matrix used in
the semianalytical pricing of CDOs in the default-time-copula model into the factor weights of a
single systemic factor with a really simple formula, i.e. without the need for
iterations or principal components analysis?
Here is how!
- More likely than not.
In a nutshell: this is a collection of likelihood ratio formulae.
- Stabilised multidimensional root finding.
Underdetermined fitting and root finding problems can be stabilised by the addition of quantifiable
desirable features to the task. Simply defining a weighted objective function containing the
original problem and the desiderata function is generally not robust. By adding a
Lagrange-multiplier weighted Newton-Raphson step condition to the desiderata function,
however, even very large problems can be solved surprisingly efficiently.
- The practicalities of Libor Market models.
There are many publications on the theory of the Libor market model and its extensions. There are very few sources on
the issues a pracitioner faces during implementation and opertion of the model. This presentation (~160 slides) is the
material for a one-day training course (first given in 2005) on the subject of how to make a Libor Market Model work in
practice.
- A toy example for
weighted sampling for variance reduction (October 2004).
This is a demonstration how biasing the variates used for a Monte Carlo simulation can significantly reduce the variance
of the simulation result. As is so often the case with this technique, its applicability in practice depends on having a
good estimate for the optimal bias in a least-variance sense. In this example for a digital option in a Gaussian model,
I give analytical approximations for the optimal bias derived from its defining transcendental equation.
- A note on multivariate Gauss-Hermite quadrature (May 2005). Univariate Gauss-Hermite quadrature is
a very powerful and well understood tool in numerical analysis. In this document, I discuss some of
the choices we have when it comes to more than one dimension. I also provide an explanation how
polar coordinates can be used in two dimensions for which an unusual kind of one-dimensional
quadrature is required: radial Gauss-Hermite quadrature. This is essentially the same as
standard Gauss-Hermite, only that the integration domain starts at zero. I have precomputed the
required roots and weights up to order 40. They are tabulated in
RootsAndWeightsForRadialGaussHermiteQuadrature.cpp.
- A practical method for the valuation of a variety of hybrid products
(ICBI Global Derivatives Conference, Paris, May 2005) is a presentation on a flexible model framework that can be used to price products on multiple underlyings, from different asset classes, allowing for arbitrary volatility smiles. The model is effectively an approximate Markov functional model. Its numerical implementation allows for very fast pricing of fully smile dependent contracts similar to local volatility models, but without any numerical short time-stepping, and without any numerical calibration noise as is so often associated with local volatility models.
- Fast strong approximation Monte-Carlo schemes for stochastic volatility models (joint
paper with Christian Kahl, September 2005, published in the Journal of
Quantitative Finance, Vol. 6, No. 6, 2006, pp. 513-536). Fast numerical integration methods for stochastic
volatility models in financial markets are discussed. We use the strong convergence behaviour as an
indicator for the approximation quality.
- Not-so-complex logarithms in the Heston model (joint paper with Christian Kahl, Wilmott, pages 94-103, September 2005).
- Semi-analytic valuation of credit linked swaps in a Black-Karasinski framework
(Quant Congress Europe, London, October 2006) is a presentation on a simple model for the valuation of credit linked
swaps in a framework that allows for strictly positive default hazard rates and permits explicit control over the
market-observable skew of implied volatilities for options on the underlying swap. We discuss different aspects of
calibration depending on the nature of the underlying swap. For speedy numerical evaluation, the resulting pricing
equations are reduced to a dimensionality-pruned quadrature over a generic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process path space.
- By Implication (July 2006;
Wilmott, pages 60-66, November 2006). Probably the most complicated
trivial issue in financial mathematics: how to compute Black's implied
volatility robustly, simply, efficiently, and fast.
- An asymptotic FX option formula in the cross currency Libor market model (joint paper with Atsushi Kawai, October
2006; Wilmott, pages 74-84, March 2007). Libor market models are
becoming more and more popular, and approximate formulae for swaptions
and caplets in aid of fast calibration are available. This article is
about plain vanilla FX option approximations in a cross currency Libor
market model with explicit (displaced diffusion) control over the skew
of both domestic and foreign interest rates, as well as the spot FX
process.
- Hyperbolic local volatility (November 2006).
A parametric local volatility form based on a hyperbolic conic section
is introduced, and details are given as to how this alternative local
volatility form can be used as a drop-in replacement for the popular
Constant Elasticity of Variance local volatility, and what parameter restrictions apply.
- Hyp Hyp Hooray (June 2007,
joint paper with Christian Kahl; Wilmott, pages 70-81, March 2008).
A new stochastic-local volatility model is introduced. The new model's
structural features are carefully selected to accommodate economic
principles, financial markets' reality, mathematical consistency, and
ease of numerical tractability when used for the pricing and hedging
of exotic derivative contracts. Also, we present a generic analytical
approximation for Black volatilities for plain vanilla options implied
by any parametric-local-and-stochastic-volatility model, apply it to
the new model, and demonstrate its accuracy.
- The Gamma Loss and
Prepayment model (November 2007, published in Risk Magazine in September 2008, pp 134-139).
We present a model for the dynamics of fractional notional losses and
prepayments on asset backed securities for the valuation and risk
management of derivatives such as the so-called waterfall
structures and other structured debt obligations.
- The Discrete Gamma Pool
model (February 2008; Wilmott Journal, 1(1):23-40, 2009) is a model for the
dynamics of losses and spreads on portfolios for the purpose of pricing exotic variations of synthetic collateralised
tranche obligations such as Loss Triggered Leveraged Super-Senior notes, multi-callable CDOs, and, by
implication of the latter, options on forward starting CDOs. Also discussed are features such as the
counterparty's right to deleverage upon a loss trigger event in a leveraged super senior can be understood as an
embedded Bermudan swaption, and how this can be catered for in a numerical implementation.
- Implementation of the Discrete Gamma Pool model
(February 2008) gives details as to how the numerical quadratures required for the valuation of contracts within the
Discrete Gamma Pool model framework can be done.
- Positive semi-definite correlation matrix completion for stochastic volatility models
(joint paper with Christian Kahl, May 2009) outlines how one can, for any stochastic volatility model, given cross-asset, and asset-volatility correlations, fill in the remaining elements of the complete correlation matrix in a flexible way that is guaranteed to always give a positive semi-definite matrix.
- A singular Variance
Gamma expansion (May 2009) is a note on an analytical expansion for option prices and Black implied
volatilities generated by the Variance Gamma model based on a singular expansion of the standard gamma density
in terms of the Dirac functions and its derivatives. The expansion is done up to fifth order in the Variance
Gamma kurtosis parameter \nu using the open source computer algebra system Maxima. The Maxima
code
BlackVolatilityExpansionForVarianceGammaModel_macsyma.txt is straightforward and could easily be translated to any
other symbolic mathematics package.
- The following articles are to appear in the forthcoming
Encyclopedia of Quantitative Finance (John Wiley and Sons, 2010):
- Quanto Skew (July 2009) presents an analysis
of the humble quanto vanilla option. A conventionally used quanto adjustment is compared with exact results using a
simple double displaced diffusion model. Arguably (not) surprisingly, it turns out that the conventional quanto
adjustment results in price and (quanto-) implied volatility differences that are negligible only for short-dated contracts.